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Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola.
N N Taleb's Probability Questions
Nassim Taleb argues that evidence on terrorism risk presented in media is statistically naive, using extreme value theory without math to separate fat-tailed risks like Ebola and terrorism from thin-tailed ones.
HN cites it when arguing that different risks follow different distributions and should be judged by growth rates and tails rather than current counts.
4 Hacker News mentions · 2017–2021